Is Fresno Experiencing a Housing Recession?

Answers vary according to who you listen to, so is Fresno experiencing a housing recession or not?

Experts like Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), say that the U.S. housing market nationwide is in trouble. Fox Business quotes Yun as saying, “We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building.”

But Yun also said, “It’s not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight, and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price.”

A Housing Recession Isn’t the Same as a General Economic Recession

A economic recession is defined as “a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity,” according to Investopedia. A generally accepted rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) signifies a recession.

A housing recession is similar, but looks at home sales as the marker.

NAR Vice President of demographics and behavioral insights Jessica Lautz explains that a housing recession “really just means a contraction in home sales in the last six months.”

A general recession doesn’t always mean there is also a housing recession happening at the same time in all areas.

Fresno Home Sales in the Last 6 Months

Reports of home sales in Fresno during the last 6 months do not show a significant contraction. Redfin reports the following homes sold in each of the last 6 months:

  • March 2022 — 486 homes sold
  • April 2022 — 476 homes sold
  • May 2022 — 477 homes sold
  • June 2022 — 492 homes sold
  • July 2022 — 389 homes sold
  • August 2022 — 443 homes sold

There has been some fluctuation, but not a consistent and consecutive downward trend … at least in Fresno. At least not yet.

Part of this is because of Fresno’s affordability in comparison to other areas of California, which has driven new residents to buy homes here.

Some Experts say Fresno is “At-Risk”

Real estate experts on the editorial team at FirstTuesday Journal say Fresno is among California metro regions at risk of a housing crash due to:

  • High loan-to-value ratios
  • Large share of flipped homes
  • High numbers of residents new to the area
  • Rapid home price growth

Metros at greater risk than Fresno, according to FirstTuesday, are Riverside, Sacramento, Bakersfield, San Diego, and Stockton.

What Does this Mean for YOU?

Putting all of this into perspective for you can seem overwhelming. It can be a lot to take in. It can be confusing and hard to make sense of.

That’s why we recommend talking to real estate professionals — both real estate agents and mortgage loan consultants — about what the current state of the Fresno housing market means for you and how it relates to your specific economic situation.

For some people, it still makes perfectly good sense to buy and sell a home right now. For others, it may not. At the end of the day, it’s a decision that only you can make.

But if you need help figuring out the Fresno housing market so that you can feel more comfortable in making that decision, we’re here for you.

Send us a message or call us at 559-490-0207 today to start the conversation. The Foxen Team has helped a lot of people through the process of buying and selling real estate, and you can count on us to help you, too.

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